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Flux News
Refinery Bottlenecks, Fuel Fireworks & the Curve’s Disconnect — What We’re Trading Now
Welcome back to Trading Corner. This week, James and Manny dive headfirst into the wild ride that is the HSFO market and what it means for cracks, margins, and benchmark distortion.
Three trades this week:
James’ Trade Idea:Hold Long Dec '26 EBOB Crack — Deferred gasoline margins still underpriced with summer upside in sight.
Manny’s Trade Ideas:Long June/July DFL Roll — Tight barrels and seasonal strength point to continued structure.Long Q3 DFL — Dubai benchmark pricing is misfiring, but physicals suggest upside still to come.
From refinery complexity choking HSFO supply, to a benchmark blindspot in Dubai, and a product market that’s tightening as the mercury rises, James and Manny unpack the big themes:
* Why high-sulfur fuel oil cracks are breaking records
* The lead/lag dance between fuel and crude pricing
* A deep dive on Dubai’s Murban distortion and why it’s capping benchmark reaction
* When "margin boxes" lie — and how to trade what’s really happening
* The case for long product / short crude reversals as we enter Q3
* Why June vs. July is where the curve gets interesting
Glossary terms featured this week:
Crack
Differential between a barrel of product and crude oil, indicating refinery margin.
Volatility
Volatility is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time.
HSFO
Fuel oil with higher sulfur contents - max: 3.5%. Typically used in shipping and power generation.
Margins
The difference between the prices of refined products and crude oil.
Platts
Price Reporting Agency which provides benchmark price assessments in the physical energy markets.
Lead / Lag
The lead-lag relationship in trading describes how one market or asset (the "leader") tends to move ahead of another (the "lagger"), allowing traders to anticipate price movements based on these patterns.
Over brought
“Over brought” refers to a market condition where a trader has purchased more of a commodity than intended or than the market can absorb, increasing downside risk if demand falls short.
Balmo
"Balmo" (Balance of Month) refers to contracts covering the remaining days of the current month, used for short-term supply or hedging once the month is underway.
Dubai (contract)
The Dubai contract is a crude oil benchmark used to price Middle Eastern exports to Asia, reflecting medium sour crude and managed by the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME).
Naphtha
Naphtha is a light, flammable hydrocarbon liquid from petroleum refining, used in gasoline production and widely in industrial and petrochemical processes.
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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.