Oil Market Seesaw: OPEC Games, Supply Glut & the Cracks in Refinery Margins

In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Research Associate Vincent Wu and Research Analyst Edward Hayden-Briffett to unpack the mounting pressure across the oil market as physical fundamentals clash with financial positioning. 

Refinery margins are cracking, Brent time spreads have surged then stalled, and OPEC’s headline theatre is wearing thin. Are we approaching a tipping point - or just another seesaw in the market?

This episode also covers:

• The Brent market’s $60/bbl floor: real support or short-covering illusion?
• A look into distillate and naphtha weakness - and what it signals for margins
• OPEC’s layered cuts, voluntary compliance issues, and Abu Dhabi’s Murban pivot
• Crack spread compression and what it means for global refinery utilisation
• Hedge fund activity, CTA short positioning, and why funds are sitting out the rally
• Plus: why the physical oil market is finally starting to behave rationally - and what that means for trading the rest of the year.

 Want to trade?

Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 3rd June, 2025. 

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👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw 

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Chapters for this episode are:

0:00 Introduction

0:30 Temperature Gauge: Your Pulse on the Market

9:14 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?

20:50 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown

27:26 Hedge Fund Watch: 

31:52 Crack Spread Chronicles: Refinery Margins

38:25 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!

43:16 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trading Losses

54:17 Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.