Flux News

12 Days of Panic, Then… Silence? Oil Shrugs Off War as Oversupply Talk Heats Up

Onyx Capital Group

In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and "Geek in the Seat" Harinder Sandhu to unpack the aftermath of the Israel-Iran conflict and its whiplash effect on global oil markets. With volatility collapsing, producer hedging accelerating, and refiners raking in profits, they look beneath the headlines to understand who actually came out on top - and why the bearish consensus might be getting ahead of itself.

 

This week’s discussion dives into:

• The volatility unwind: how trade houses crushed overpriced options after the ceasefire

• Why flat price ignored the news flow - and what Brent spreads reveal about true sentiment

• The return of Iranian barrels, Trump’s oil tweets, and what they mean for 2025 balances

• OPEC’s next move: paper unwind or physical flood? And why the Saudis are playing it slow

• CTA, hedge fund, and retail whiplash: who faded the spike, and who got caught?

• Crack spreads remain sky-high, even as UK refineries shut down. What's really going on here?

• And more!

 

Want to trade?

Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

 

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 1st July, 2025.

 

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

 

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