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Tech Stocks, Weak US Data, Bitcoin Making Highs & Gold Breakout Watch | Macro Mondays
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This week on Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe breaks down the biggest macro market movers:
- US economy falters - July jobs report shows just 73k new jobs, the weakest hiring since COVID, plus a massive 259k downward revision. ISM manufacturing and services PMIs point to stagflation risks.
- Fed rate cut bets surge - Markets now price -58bp by year-end and -111bp over 12 months; JP Morgan expects three consecutive cuts.
- Trump escalates tariffs - New 15%–100% levies on Japan, India, and chip imports, plus Nvidia/AMD paying 15% of China sales to the US government.
- Global slowdown signals - Eurozone PMIs sink, German industrial production falls -1.9%, UK manufacturing contracts, and China’s PPI deflation deepens.
- Equity concentration risk - S&P 500’s top 10 stocks now make up 40% of market cap; Nvidia alone is 8% of the index, while breadth weakens.
- Commodities in focus –- Gold eyes a $3,430 breakout amid Trump’s Fed nomination; Bitcoin and Ethereum extend rallies; Brent crude slips on weaker Chinese demand.
- Stock spotlights - Palantir’s sky-high PE (620) sparks bubble talk; Tesla breaks higher on strong technicals.
Plus, James, James and Will cover key data ahead: US CPI, OPEC report, UK & German figures, and Chinese retail sales , all with potential to spark volatility in the weeks ahead.